Oil & Gas Stock Roundup: Buffett Bets on XOM, Icahn Ignites RIG
Crude prices edged lower, legendary investor Warren Buffett took a stake inExxon Mobil Corp. (XOM - Analyst Report) and Carl Icahn agreed to make peace withTransocean Ltd. (RIG - Analyst Report).
Broader Market:
Crude prices declined last week despite Janet Yellen’s ‘dovish’ testimony.
In fact, oil prices finished down for the fifth time in six weeks amid lingering concerns that the global growth is still in low gear, translating into reduced demand through 2014. Coupled with ever-increasing supplies on the back of modern technological advancements, and political stability in producing countries, crude fundamentals appear bleak. Investors are also apprehensive that last month’s 16-day U.S. government shutdown has eroded demand in the worlds biggest oil consumer.
Separately, the Nov 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that manufacturing conditions weakened partially for New York manufacturers. Oil traders often refer to manufacturing statistics as yardsticks to gauge the future fuel demand growth.
Sentiments were further dampened by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that showed another big jump in inventories, which remains above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year.
As per the EIA’s weekly ‘Petroleum Status Report,’ crude inventories climbed by 2.64 million barrels for the week ending Nov 8 to 388.09 million barrels. What’s more, storage at the Cushing terminal in Oklahoma, the key delivery hub for U.S. crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, was also up 1.69 million barrels, the fifth straight weekly gain.
In another piece of news coming out from the EIA, monthly U.S. crude output in Oct – at 7.7 million barrels per day – overtook imports for the first time since Feb 1995. With the U.S. awash in crude, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the country will leapfrog Russia and Saudi Arabia to claim the world’s ‘top oil producer’ tag by 2015.
As a result of these factors, by close of trade on Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was firmly in the red and settled at $93.84 per barrel, losing 0.8% for the week.
On the contrary, the broad-based S&P 500 index gained 1.6% and finished the week by hitting a new record high of 1,798.18. The market’s phenomenal run – notching up its sixth consecutive week of gains – was mainly driven by Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen’s recent comments before the Senate Banking Committee that gave indications that the current $85-billion stimulus program devised to support the economy will continue for some time.
The Sub-Sectors:
Integrated: Almost all major integrated players traded in the black, with the major newsmaker being Exxon Mobil Corp. The world's largest publicly traded oil firm added 2.7% to its share price last week after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. revealed that it had acquired an additional stake worth $3.45 billion in the company on Friday.
Anglo-Dutch supermajor Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A - Analyst Report) was another top gainer, whose U.S.-listed shares were up 3.6% over the week after it closed in on a deal with the Iraqi government to set up an $11 billion ethane-cracking facility in the southern part of the country. Separately, Shell said that it would be partnering Chinese giant Sinopec to probe wells in the largely unexplored central China to examine the shale potential in the region.
ROYAL DUTCH SHELLA (RDSA)
ROYAL DUTCH SHELLA (RDSA)
2.065,00 GBp @ LSE
-1,53% | -32,00
26/11/2013 17:35
-1,53% | -32,00
26/11/2013 17:35
E&P: Last week, the SIG Oil Exploration & Production Index traded up 1.0%.
Top gainers include Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD - Analyst Report), which soared 7.0% on Wednesday after coming out with news of more success in its core Spraberry/Wolfcamp region in West Texas’ Permian Basin. One of the largest operators in the oil-rich area, Pioneer announced production from two horizontal wells, at impressive rates.
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES CO COM STK USD0.01 (PXD)
186,48 USD @ NYSE
+3,00% | +5,44
26/11/2013 20:11
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES CO COM STK USD0.01 (PXD)
186,48 USD @ NYSE
+3,00% | +5,44
26/11/2013 20:11
U.S. energy firm Apache Corp. (APA - Analyst Report) added 3.0% to its stock price, as it continued offloading oil, gas acreage in an effort to boost valuation and lower debt. The company completed the sale of 33% of its ‘risky’ Egypt business for around $3.0 billion.
APACHE CORP COM USD0.625 (APA)
94,24 USD @ NYSE
+1,07% | +1,00
26/11/2013 20:16
APACHE CORP COM USD0.625 (APA)
94,24 USD @ NYSE
+1,07% | +1,00
26/11/2013 20:16
On the other end of the spectrum, shares of Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR - Analyst Report) shed 8.8% during the week. Much of this seems to be tied to the investors’ thumbs down to the American oil and gas producer’s restructuring plan. Shares sunk after Denbury nixed the idea of pursuing a master limited partnership (MLP), citing ‘no clear long-term benefit for shareholders’.
DENBURY RES INC DEL COM USD0.001 (DNR)
17,02 USD @ NYSE
+0,29% | +0,05
26/11/2013 20:18
DENBURY RES INC DEL COM USD0.001 (DNR)
17,02 USD @ NYSE
+0,29% | +0,05
26/11/2013 20:18
Oilfield Services: The oil services group – represented by the Philadelphia Oil Services Sector Index – was up 0.9% through the week.
Leading the pack was Transocean Ltd., which gained 2.9% through the week after the proxy battle between the incumbent management and activist investor Carl Icahn for the control of offshore drilling giant came to an end on Nov 11, with the former partly yielding to the terms of Icahn. Per the deal, Transocean agreed to boost its annual dividend to $3 per share. Moreover, with two seats in the Icahn-proposed smaller board (11 against the previous 14) that management has agreed to, the billionaire investor seems to have firmly secured his place in the Switzerland-based company.
TRANSOCEAN N (RIG)
50,41 USD @ NYSE
-1,16% | -0,59
26/11/2013 20:30
TRANSOCEAN N (RIG)
50,41 USD @ NYSE
-1,16% | -0,59
26/11/2013 20:30
Refining & Marketing: All major downstream stocks traded in the black, with the top gainers being Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC - Analyst Report) and Tesoro Corp. (TSO - Analyst Report), which advanced 10.0% and 8.9%, respectively, over the week.
MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC)
81,69 USD @ NYSE
-0,11% | -0,09
26/11/2013 21:54
TESORO CORPORATION COM USD0.1666 (TSO)
57,11 USD @ NYSE
-0,35% | -0,20
26/11/2013 21:48
MARATHON PETROLEUM (MPC)
81,69 USD @ NYSE
-0,11% | -0,09
26/11/2013 21:54
TESORO CORPORATION COM USD0.1666 (TSO)
57,11 USD @ NYSE
-0,35% | -0,20
26/11/2013 21:48
After going through a bumpy ride for much of 2013, the sector has started to look up in recent weeks – and it’s mainly to do with the ‘oil spread’, the difference between the WTI price and its global counterpart, Brent. With refiners being buyers of WTI, while selling their products based on Brent, the wider the so-called ‘Brent-WTI spread’, the better it is for the sector components.
During the last few weeks, WTI and Brent have been heading in opposite directions. In fact, the WTI price has receded to the sub-$95 per barrel level but Brent has stayed strong, at around $109 per barrel. This has widened the oil spread at over $10 per barrel, thereby boosting refinery stocks.
Additional support has come from a recent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which entails a relaxation in its renewable fuels requirements that would reduce compliance costs for refiners. This, in turn, will favorably impact earnings and cash flows.
Natural Gas:
Investors continue to focus on temperature patterns to understand the fuel’s economic dynamics. As it is, natural gas fundamentals look uninspiring with supplies remaining ample in the face of underwhelming demand. In fact, it is expected to take many years for the commodity’s demand to match supply in the face of newer projects.
The EIA's weekly inventory release showed that natural gas stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 20 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Nov 8. Worryingly, though, the increase was in contrast to last year’s withdrawal of 12 Bcf and exceeded the 5-year (2008–2012) average addition of 19 Bcf for the reported week.
The bullish speculators are betting on the upcoming winter heating season (Nov through Mar) to spur the commodity’s demand for heating. Chilly weather forecasts – in the Eastern U.S. over the next ten days or so – have proved to be the catalyst. As a result, natural gas spot prices ended Friday at $3.66 per million Btu (MMBtu), up 3.4% over the week.
Performance Chart of Some Major Companies:
Ticker
|
Last Week’s Performance
|
6 month performance
|
XOM
|
+2.74%
|
+3.17%
|
RDS.A
|
+3.59%
|
-0.63%
|
APA
|
+3.01%
|
+9.41%
|
PXD
|
+2.49%
|
+32.74%
|
SLB
|
-0.86%
|
+18.86%
|
RIG
|
+2.89%
|
+1.18%
|
MPC
|
+10.03%
|
-8.48%
|
TSO
|
+8.86%
|
-14.67%
|
Oil & Gas Stock Roundup: Crude Flat, Transocean Soars on Q3 Beat
Broader Market:
Crude prices remained flat last week.
A better-than-anticipated Oct jobs report seemed to ease concerns that last month’s 16-day U.S. government shutdown has eroded demand in the worlds biggest oil consumer. This was aided by positive data about China’s all-important trade sector, allaying some of the fears raised by the unusually weak export numbers in September.
In more positive news, the first read on Q3 GDP came in better than expected, with the economy growing at +2.8% pace instead of the +2% consensus estimate and the final +2.5% growth pace in Q2.
However, at the same time, the recent run of positive economic data, ranging from the ISM surveys to Q3 GDP and October non-farm payrolls, has put the December Taper back on the market’s agenda. Lower Euro-zone growth forecasts for 2014 also weighed on crude prices.
Sentiments were further dampened by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that showed another jump in inventories, which remains above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year.
As per the EIA’s weekly ‘Petroleum Status Report,’ crude inventories climbed by 1.6 million barrels for the week ending Nov 25, 2013 to 385.45 million barrels. A drop in refinery utilization rates and steady production led to the stockpile build-up with the U.S. even as imports fell.
What’s more, storage at the Cushing terminal in Oklahoma, the key delivery hub for U.S. crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, was also up 991,000 barrels, the fourth straight weekly gain.
As a result of these factors, by close of trade on Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was little changed and settled at $94.60 per barrel, essentially flat for the week.
On the other hand, the broad-based S&P 500 index edged up 0.5% and finished the week at 1,770.61, a day after registering its worst performance in ten weeks. Traders were buoyed by the unanticipated boost in U.S. jobs growth in Oct, taking it as a sign of strength in the world's largest economy. Even the weak consumer sentiment numbers could not deter the bulls.
The Sub-Sectors:
Integrated: Major integrated players were mixed, with the top gainer being Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM - Analyst Report). The world's largest publicly traded oil firm added 4.0% to its share price last week. Exxon Mobil continues to build on its strong momentum from the previous week, when it came out with a quarterly beat, backed by higher liquid and natural gas prices. Investors also cheered Exxon Mobil’s move to restart work in Madagascar, four years after the company announced force majeure following a military coup in the island nation.
EXXON MOBIL (XOM)
94,27 USD @ NYSE
-0,86% | -0,82
26/11/2013 22:00
San Ramon, CA-headquartered energy behemoth Chevron Corp. (CVX - Analyst Report) was another solid performer. Shares climbed 2.7% during the week after the company signed a deal worth up to $10 billion with Ukraine to explore the country’s shale gas deposits, which is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian supplies. Moreover, the supermajor’s court case in Manhattan – to dispute a $19 billion environmental verdict it faces in Ecuador over pollution – took an interesting turn, as the judge who issued the ruling seemed to have little knowledge about his own order.
CHEVRON (CVX)
122,78 USD @ NYSE
-0,78% | -0,96
26/11/2013 22:00
Overall, however, most of the ‘Big Oil’ is suffering from marginal or falling returns irrespective of the crude price movement, reflecting their struggle to replace reserve base and maintain production growth, as access to new energy resources becomes more difficult.
EXXON MOBIL (XOM)
94,27 USD @ NYSE
-0,86% | -0,82
26/11/2013 22:00
San Ramon, CA-headquartered energy behemoth Chevron Corp. (CVX - Analyst Report) was another solid performer. Shares climbed 2.7% during the week after the company signed a deal worth up to $10 billion with Ukraine to explore the country’s shale gas deposits, which is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian supplies. Moreover, the supermajor’s court case in Manhattan – to dispute a $19 billion environmental verdict it faces in Ecuador over pollution – took an interesting turn, as the judge who issued the ruling seemed to have little knowledge about his own order.
CHEVRON (CVX)
122,78 USD @ NYSE
-0,78% | -0,96
26/11/2013 22:00
Overall, however, most of the ‘Big Oil’ is suffering from marginal or falling returns irrespective of the crude price movement, reflecting their struggle to replace reserve base and maintain production growth, as access to new energy resources becomes more difficult.
E&P: While all crude-focused stocks stand to gain/lose from rising/falling commodity prices, companies in the exploration and production (E&P) sector are the most affected, as they are able to extract more/less value for their products. Last week, the SIG Oil Exploration & Production Index traded down 1.7%.
Top decliners include WPX Energy Inc., which plunged 14.7% after coming out with disappointing third quarter results. Plagued by lower natural gas prices, the Tulsa, OK-based energy explorer’s net loss almost doubled, while being much wider than anticipated. Operating performance was also impacted by a decline in total production volumes, compounded by an increase in operating costs. Moreover, the company’s volume guidance was on the weaker side, as it continues to struggle with infrastructure issues in its Marcellus Shale operations.
Shares of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC - Analyst Report) shed 3.6% during the week. Much of this seems to be tied to the American oil and gas producer’s failure to match third quarter earnings estimates. Though the company actually announced a rise in profits and also beat revenue projections, it was not enough to appease investors, who expected better growth, considering its premium valuation. A natural gas-weighted production profile – whose economics is floundering – also played its part in bringing down the stock.
ANADARKO PETROLEUM (APC)
90,57 USD @ NYSE
+0,06% | +0,05
26/11/2013 22:01
ANADARKO PETROLEUM (APC)
90,57 USD @ NYSE
+0,06% | +0,05
26/11/2013 22:01
Oilfield Services: The oil services group – represented by the Philadelphia Oil Services Sector Index – was up 1.5% through the week.
Leading the pack was offshore driller Transocean Ltd. (RIG - Analyst Report), which jumped 12.4% through the week after it delivered a standout quarter. On Wednesday, the Switzerland-based firm reported larger-than-expected earnings and revenues for the three month ended Sep 30 on the back of improved rig utilization and average dayrates.
Two of the best performers last week were oilfield service biggies Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT - Analyst Report) and Halliburton Co. (HAL - Analyst Report), shooting ahead of their peers with additions of 4.3% and 3.9% to their respective stock prices. Weatherford moved higher after it beat profit view and inked deals with the U.S. government to settle longstanding corruption charges.
WEATHERFORD (WFT)
16,13 USD @NYSE
+1,13% | +0,18
26/11/2013 22:01
HALLIBURTON (HAL)
53,18 USD @ NYSE
+0,91% | +0,48
26/11/2013 22:01
Moreover, the Geneva-based drilling equipment manufacturer named a new CFO, which boosted investor sentiment and removed uncertainty regarding the company’s future leadership. On the other hand, Halliburton on Wednesday said its board approved a quarterly dividend of 15 cents per share, up 2.5 cents, or 20%, from the prior quarter.
WEATHERFORD (WFT)
16,13 USD @NYSE
+1,13% | +0,18
26/11/2013 22:01
HALLIBURTON (HAL)
53,18 USD @ NYSE
+0,91% | +0,48
26/11/2013 22:01
Moreover, the Geneva-based drilling equipment manufacturer named a new CFO, which boosted investor sentiment and removed uncertainty regarding the company’s future leadership. On the other hand, Halliburton on Wednesday said its board approved a quarterly dividend of 15 cents per share, up 2.5 cents, or 20%, from the prior quarter.
Refining & Marketing: This has been one sector that has underperformed the rest of the energy industry for the bulk of this year. With refiners being buyers of oil – whose price saw a steep climb recently – their third quarter profitability had been squeezed due to a rise in the input cost and lower crack spreads.
These headwinds were reflected in disappointing results for sector component HollyFrontier Corp. The downstream operator’s earnings – dragged down by collapsing refining margins – were way below estimates.
However, shares of Tesoro Corp. (TSO - Analyst Report) – one the largest domestic independent refiners – rallied, up almost 3.8% for the week, after it reported third quarter revenues well above expectations on the strength of higher throughput volumes and improved performance by the retail segment that overshadowed weaker refining margins and steep costs.
TESORO CORPORATION COM USD0.1666 (TSO)
57,11 USD @ NYSE
-0,35% | -0,20
26/11/2013 21:48
TESORO CORPORATION COM USD0.1666 (TSO)
57,11 USD @ NYSE
-0,35% | -0,20
26/11/2013 21:48
On a brighter note, over the past fortnight or so, crude prices have pulled back and spreads have showed signs of strengthening yet again, pointing to the likelihood that the difficult operating environment could be over sooner than what many investors think.
Natural Gas:
Investors continue to focus on temperature patterns to understand the fuel’s economic dynamics. As it is, natural gas fundamentals look uninspiring with supplies remaining ample in the face of underwhelming demand. In fact, it is expected to take many years for the commodity’s demand to match supply in the face of newer projects.
The EIA's weekly inventory release showed that natural gas stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 35 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Nov 1, within the guided range (of 34–38 Bcf gain). The increase – the thirtieth injection of 2013 – exceeded last year’s build of 27 Bcf but was marginally lower than the 5-year (2008–2012) average addition of 36 Bcf for the reported week.
The bullish speculators are betting on the upcoming winter heating season (Nov through Mar) to spur the commodity’s demand for heating. Chilly weather forecasts – in East U.S. over the next ten days or so – have proved to be the catalyst. As a result, natural gas spot prices ended Friday at $3.56 per million Btu (MMBtu), up 3.2% over the week.
Performance Chart:
Ticker
|
Last Week’s Performance
|
6 month performance
|
XOM
|
+3.95%
|
+3.17%
|
CVX
|
+2.69%
|
-1.44%
|
APC
|
-3.62%
|
+5.00%
|
COP
|
+0.82%
|
+18.65%
|
HAL
|
+3.93%
|
+26.95%
|
WFT
|
+4.28%
|
+29.43%
|
RIG
|
+12.38%
|
+1.60%
|
TSO
|
+4.75%
|
-7.40%
|
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